Sains Malaysiana 53(4)(2024): 953-967

http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2024-5304-17

Trend Behavior of Malaysia Consumer Price Index: Evidence from National Database (2003-2022) 

(Trend Tingkah Laku Indeks Harga Pengguna Malaysia: Bukti daripada Pangkalan Data Negara (2003-2022))

NURULKAMAL MASSERAN*, NAZIHAH RUZELAN ‪ & R. NUR-FIRYAL

Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia

Diserahkan: 15 Ogos2023/Diterima: 1 Mac 2024

Abstract

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a general indicator used to measure price changes over time. The Malaysia CPI is published using a base year of 2010. This study aimed to identify the significant trend behavior in the Malaysia CPI series for the period 2003–2022. The main question of the paper is whether there exists any difference in trends between the main and overall CPI variables? If so, is the difference significant? If so, how strong or weak is the magnitude of its trend? This is analyzed empirically through five statistical analysis methods involving the serial correlation analysis, Mann–Kendall test, Mann–Kendall sequential test, Sen’s-T test, and Sen’s estimator. Overall, we conclude that there is a significant upward trend for 11 of the 13 variables, while two variables, which are Transportation and Communication, showed no significant monotonic trend. The results of this study provide insight into a better understanding of the behavioral trends of the CPI in Malaysia. This study can help policymakers to understand the importance of increasing expenditure into certain sectors in order to have better production and with this implementation, the trend of inflation rate can be better understood.

Keywords: Consumer price index; economic indicator; trend analysis

Abstrak

Indeks Harga Pengguna (CPI) ialah penunjuk umum yang digunakan untuk mengukur perubahan harga dari semasa ke semasa. CPI Malaysia diterbitkan menggunakan tahun asas 2010. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk mengenal pasti tingkah-laku arah aliran yang beerti dalam siri masa CPI Malaysia bagi tempoh 2003–2022. Persoalan utama kajian ini, adakah wujud sebarang perbezaan dalam arah aliran antara pemboleh ubah kumpulan utama dan keseluruhan CPI? Jika ya, adakah perbezaannya beerti? Jika ya, berapa kuat atau lemah magnitud arah alirannya? Ianya dianalisis secara empirik menerusi lima kaedah analisis statistik yang melibatkan analisis korelasi bersiri, ujian Mann–Kendall, ujian jujukan Mann–Kendall, ujian T-Sen dan penganggar Sen. Secara keseluruhan, kami simpulkan bahawa terdapat arah aliran meningkat yang ketara untuk 11 daripada 13 pemboleh ubah, manakala dua pemboleh ubah iaitu pengangkutan dan komunikasi tidak menunjukkan arah aliran ekanada yang ketara. Hasil kajian ini memberi gambaran dan pemahaman yang lebih baik tentang arah aliran tingkah laku CPI di Malaysia. Kajian ini membantu penggubal dasar memahami kepentingan meningkatkan perbelanjaan bagi sektor yang tertentu agar pengeluaran dapat dilaksanakan dengan lebih teratur supaya arah aliran kadar inflasi dapat difahami dengan lebih baik.

Kata kunci: Analisis arah aliran; indeks harga pengguna; penunjuk ekonomi

RUJUKAN

Abdul Karim, Z., Mod Asri, N. & Wajdi, M.F. 2006. Hubungan antara indeks harga pengguna (CPI) mengikut wilayah di Malaysia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan 7(2): 184-201.

Arudchelvan, M. & Wignaraja, G. 2016. SME internationalization through global value chains and free trade agreements: Evidence from Malaysia. In Production Networks and Enterprises in East Asia. ADB Institute Series on Development Economics, edited by Wignaraja, G. Tokyo: Springer.

Bayazit, M. & Önöz, B. 2007. To prewhiten or not to prewhiten in trend analysis? Hydrological Sciences Journal 52(4): 611-624.

Bryan, M.F., Cecchetti, S.G. & O'Sullivan, R. 2001. Asset prices in the measurement of inflation. De Economist 149: 405-431.

Budhwar, P. & Fadzil, K. 2000. Globalization, Economic crisis and employment practices: Lessons from a large Malaysian Islamic Institution. Asia Pacific Business Review 7(1): 171-198.

Clark, T.E. & Garciga, C. 2016. Recent inflation trends. Economic Trends. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/historical/frbclev/trends/frbclev_econtrends_20160114.pdf

Che Rose, R.A. & Mutsamy, R. 2020. Kenaikan harga barangan dan impaknya terhadap penduduk B40 di Muar, Johor. Asian People Journal 3(2): 106-121.

Colombo, V. 2013. Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area? Economics Letters 121(1): 39-42.

Dalén, J. 1998. Studies on the comparability of consumer price indices. International Statistical Review 66(1): 83-113.

de Haan, L. & van den End, J.W. 2018. The signalling content of asset prices for inflation: Implications for quantitative easing. Economic Systems 42(1): 45-63.

Eggertsson, G., Ferrero, A. & Raffo, A. 2014. Can structural reforms help Europe? Journal of Monetary Economics 61: 2-22

Farhana, K., Mahamude, A.S.F. & Mica, M.T. 2022. The scenario of textile industry in Malaysia: A review for potentiality. Materials Circular Economy 4: 20.

Ferrero, A. 2009. Fiscal and monetary rules for a currency union. Journal of International Economics 77(1): 1-10.

Francis-Devine, B., Bolton, P., Keep, M. & Harari, D. 2022. Rising Cost of Living in the UK. London: House of Commons Library.

Grinin, L.E. & Korotayev, A.V. 2018. The future of the global economy in the light of inflationary and deflationary trends and long cycles theory. World Futures 74(2): 84-103.

Gocic, M. & Trajkovic, S. 2013. Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Global and Planetary Change 100: 172-182.

Gjelsvik, M., Nymoen, R. & Sparrman, V. 2020. Cointegration and structure in Norwegian wage–price dynamics. Econometrics 8(3): 29.

Grytten, O.H. 2020. Revising price history: Consumer price index for Norway 1492–2018. Scandinavian Economic History Review 68(2): 129-144.

Hirsch, R.M. & Slack, J.R. 1984. A non-parametric trend test for seasonal data with serial dependence. Water Resources Research 20: 727-732.

Hj Ridzuan, A.R., Shaari, M.S., Eimer, A.A. & Jaaffar, A.R. 2021. Malaysia’s foreign economic policy and trade performance. Modelling Economic Growth in Contemporary Malaysia. Emerald Publishing Limited: 267-278.

Department of Statistics Malaysia. 2022. Harga Makanan Lonjak Kadar Inflasi Malaysia. www.dosm.gov.my/uploads/content-downloads/file_20220930095801.pdf

Kaplan, G. & Schulhofer-Who, S. 2017. Inflation at the household level. Journal of Monetary Economics 91: 19-38.

Kendall, M.G. 1970. Rank Correlation Methods. 2nd ed. New York: Hafner.

Kitsul, Y. & Wright, J.H. 2013. The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions. Journal of Financial Economics 110(3): 696-711.

Konchitchki, Y. & Xie, J. 2023. Undisclosed material inflation risk. Journal of Monetary Economics 140: S82-S100.

Kulkarni, A. & von Storch, H. 1995. Monte Carlo experiments on the effect of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test of trend. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 4(2): 82-85.

Malik, A., Kumar, A., Pham, Q.B., Zhu, S., Linh, N.T.T. & Tri, D.Q. 2020. Identification of EDI trend using Mann-Kendall and Şen-Innovative Trend methods (Uttarakhand, India). Arabian Journal of Geosciences 13: 951.

Mann, H.B. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13: 245-259.

Maojun, P.A. & Abdul Ghani, N.A. 2020. COVID-19: Impact on Inflation. pp. 1118. https://www.bnm.gov.my/documents/20124/1067369/p3ba1.pdf

McKee, S., Sands, S., Pallant, J.I. & Cohen, J. 2023. The evolving direct-to-consumer retail model: A review and research agenda. International Journal of Consumer Studies 47(6): 2816-2842.

MIDF Research. 2022. Subsidi Bahan Api Dijangka Terus Kekal. https://www.bharian.com.my/bisnes/lain-lain/2022/11/1032143/subsidi-bahan-api-dijangka-terus-kekal

Moraes, J.M., Pellegrino, G.Q., Ballester, M.V., Martinelli, L.A., Victoria, R.L. & Krusche, A.V. 1998. Trends in hydrological parameters of southern Brazilian watershed and its relation to human induced changes. Water Resources Management 12: 295-311.

Ongan, S., Işik, C. & Özdemir, D. 2017. The effects of real exchange rates and income on international tourism demand for the USA from some European Union countries. Economies 5: 51.

Public Investment Bank Bhd (PIVB). 2022. PIVB Kekalkan Unjuran CPI Malaysia Naik 3 Peratus pada 2022. https://www.sinarharian.com.my/article/222993/bisnes/pivb-kekalkan-unjuran-CPI-malaysia-naik-3-peratus-pada-2022

Rahman, M.A., Yunsheng, L. & Sultana, N. 2016. Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann–Kendall, Spearman’s rho tests and ARIMA model. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 129: 409-424.

Ramli, A. 2022. Impact of inflation, Consumer Price Index (CPI) in transportation group on Indonesia’s economic growth. International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology 7(11): 637-643.

Shaharudin, S.M., Ismail, S., Samsudin, M.S., Azid, A., Tan, M.L. & Basri, M.A.A. 2021. Prediction of epidemic trends in COVID-19 with Mann-Kendall and recurrent forecasting-single spectrum analysis. Sains Malaysiana 50(4): 1131-1142.

Sek, S.K., Sim, K.Y., Har, W.M. & Aric, K.H. 2023. Examination on the asymmetric effects of commodity price changes in sectoral CPI inflation of Malaysia. AIP Conference Proceedings 2500(1): 020023.

Sen, P.K. 1968a. On a class of aligned rank order tests in two-way layouts. Institute of Mathematical Statistic 39(3): 1115-1124.

Sen, P.K. 1968b. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association 63: 1379-1389

Setyowati, N. 2019. Macroeconomic determinants of Islamic banking products in Indonesia. Economies 7: 53.

Stiglitz, J.E. & Guzman, M.M. 2020. The pandemic economic crisis, precautionary behavior and mobility constraints: An application of the dynamic disequilibrium model with randomness. Industrial and Corporate Change 30(2): 467-497.

Tew, Y.L., Tan, M.L., Cbun, K.P., Samat, N. & Mahamud, M.A. 2020. Analysis of the relationship between climate change and land use change using ESA CCI land cover maps in Sungai Kelantan Basin, Malaysia. Sains Malaysiana 51(2): 437-449.

Tham, S.Y. & Loke, W.H. 2011. Industrial deepening in Malaysia: Policy lessons for developing countries. Asian Development Review 28(2): 88-109.

Zhao, J., Huang, Q., Chang, J., Liu, D., Huang, S. & Shi, X. 2015. Analysis of temporal and spatial trends of hydro-climatic variables in the Wei River Basin. Environmental Research 139: 55-64.

*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: kamalmsn@ukm.edu.my